The Post Office is Broke

The headline is actually “Post Office Might Miss Retirees’ Payment” but the click-on-me teaser at the WSJ reads Post Office Nears Its First Default. The use of the word “first” not very subtly implies that there will be more. And there will be.

USPS StampIndeed, saying that the USPS “might” miss the $5.5B payment due in ten days is a bit too polite. They do not have the money and Congress has made it clear they will not act before the August recess. And there is a second $5.5B payment due at the end of September.

Which is not to say that missing these payments will cause much in the way of visible effect. They are, essentially, to make up an underfunding in the Postal Service’s pension plan. Skipping them may have serious long-term consequences, but for now the USPS can still buy diesel for its trucks and make payroll. For now.

The Senate did pass a bill rebating $10.9B, a coincidentally convenient figure, to the USPS that it claims to have overpaid into the Federal Employee Pension System. Last fall the GAO found that there was no overpayment, but, hey, this is Washington. The bill also bars closing more post offices, protects Saturday delivery, and declares that Tinkerbelle will live if we all clap our hands. (I may have made up that last bit.) The House has not yet considered it.

There is the argument that the law that requires the Post Office to fully fund its pension and other retirement benefits is unfair.  And it is true that the requirement is fairly unique. Governments, local ones in particular, habitually underfund their pensions, leaving future generations to pick up the bill. And in the private sector pensions are supposed to be funded fully, but the rules are sufficiently arcane and lax that shortfalls large enough to induce bankruptcy can occur. (Anybody else remember GM?)

The USPS has unique pension rules because it is a unique organization, a giant, highly regulated, non-profit company owned by the Federal Government. It has a government granted and enforced monopoly on delivering mail in the US, something that may seem of dubious worth now, but was once nearly a license to print money. And it has always been, at least in intent, self-supporting.

If a state underfunds its pension obligations that is a bad thing, and in as much as it involves politicians borrowing from the future without saying so, often a dishonest thing. But the state will presumably always be there to pay and the taxpayers who get stuck with the bill are the same taxpayers (or their children) who did not pay when the obligations were created.

But it cannot reasonably be argued that the USPS will always be there to pay benefits to retirees. Just when it will cease to exist, next year or 50 years from now, is debatable, but the ultimate result of technology overtaking it is both obvious and inevitable. And when it goes away, it will leave behind hundreds of thousands of retired workers owed pensions and healthcare.

Assuming that we do not intend to just stiff the old letter carriers, the only viable alternative will be that the Federal Government, that is, we taxpayers, will pick up the bill. In other words, saying that the USPS should not have to fully fund its retiree obligations is saying that future taxpayers should subsidize today’s mail service. This seems neither wise nor fair to me.

And the $11B the USPS will not be paying in the next few weeks is in some ways a distracting re-arranging of deck chairs. In the three months ended March 31, the USPS lost $3.2B. (It will not release results for the quarter ended June 30 until August.) Even without the onerous requirement that it pay for the retirement obligations it incurred during the quarter, it still lost $500M.

The brutal truth is that there is not enough money coming in to pay the USPS’s bills on an ongoing basis. And that is not a situation that will get better if left alone. This default is indeed the first of many.


  • By jim, July 20, 2012 @ 6:27 pm

    The USPS pre-funding obligation and the potential (likely) $5.5B default in question is for the USPS future retiree HEALTHCARE benefits, not the pension. Retiree healthcare benefits and pensions are separate funds and regulated differently.

    Unlike pensions, the private retiree healthcare benefits are NOT required to be fully funded.

    For their pensions the USPS employees are covered by the federal pension system (CSRS or FERS). THat obligation is paid and ran as part of the federal pension. In fact the USPS currently has surplus of $13B as of 2011 in the pension side mostly due to their shrinking workforce.

    The USPS certainly needs to fix its financial state for the immediate and long term. But as long as they’re losing money I think its OK to relax the requirement to prefund their retiree healthcare plans just as much as its OK to not require the S&P 500 companies to fund their $500B pension shortfall.

  • By nudge, July 20, 2012 @ 9:16 pm

    And if the advise of the Postmaster General were followed, without input from the Congress, the USPO would be in much better shape. Closing under used facilities and dropping Saturday delivery helps cut expenses. Congress needs to allow the Postmaster General to do his job.

  • By Christine Mattice, July 21, 2012 @ 10:05 am

    This is sad, but I can’t say I’m surprised. With the rise of the Internet, people are simply not using USPS as much, anymore. Plus postage has gotten so expensive!

  • By Craig, July 29, 2012 @ 11:17 am

    Well, I’m no expert–I admit it. But the figure I read is 75 years of benefits–which is to say, a baby was born today who will someday grow up to be a letter carrier, and the USPS is obliged to fund his health care in the year 2087, right now. Am I getting that vaguely right? Because that does seem somewhat onerous. And I also understand that the USPS is fine, operationally–those retiree health care payments are precisely the reason they are underwater today. As I say, I’m not an expert, and I’d be happy to be better informed. But the impression I get is of a mob of Congressmen pinning the USPS to the ground while a couple of them grab its right arm and make it slap itself in the face, all the while saying “Why do you keep hitting yourself?”

  • By Coupon Mage Software, November 3, 2012 @ 6:28 am

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  • By Mr. West, December 25, 2012 @ 6:39 pm

    Frank probably being investigated by the SEC for something, but hey … giving bad investing advice obviously isn’t a crime!

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  • By Pat Ashley, January 21, 2013 @ 9:37 pm

    The postoffice is still raisng its rates. Maybe if it stopped people wuld use the services more and then they wouldn’t have to default.

  • By Melinda Gonzalez, February 21, 2013 @ 4:32 pm

    I always thought it was odd that the USPS isn’t doing well. Even though people don’t write letters anymore, a HUGE amount of people send packages. Everyone buys stuff online these days, and some are shipped with USPS. I think back in the day there were far less packages delivered by USPS. You would think sending packages would make the USPS more money than stamps. Who knows, maybe it’s just mismanagement. Like everything else government run, perhaps they just don’t know how to budget.

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  • By Mr. West, May 19, 2013 @ 1:36 pm

    Got it: Frank won the Powerball lottery and went to a Pacific island. His next post: “The Lottery: Play it! Someone is certain to win it.”

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  • By Robert, August 30, 2013 @ 9:41 am

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  • By Ali, September 10, 2013 @ 8:56 am

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  • By Eden, April 3, 2019 @ 7:36 am

    Consider your average 30-year mortgage. What if you had to set aside a few hundred thousand dollars right now, enough to pay the whole thing, even if you were still going to make payments over 30 years? No one would ever take out a mortgage. That’s the whole point: the costs only come in over time, and the income you use to pay them comes in over time as well. It works exactly the same for retiree pensions and benefit funds. Which is why, as economist Dean Baker pointed out to Congress, pretty much no one else does what the PAEA demanded of the Postal Service.

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    Поиск новых клиентов, которых не найти с помощью других видов рекламы.

    Найти новых клиентов, которых не найти с помощью других видов рекламы.

    В чём выгода:

    1.100-процентная доставка деловых предложений.
    2.Расширение клиентской базы.
    3.Расширение своей доли рынка.
    4.Рассылки по регионам и тематикам.
    5.Отправка предложений лицам, принимающим решения.
    6.Проведение тендеров и изучение спроса.
    7.Проведение маркетинговых исследований.
    8.Изучение общественного мнения и проведение опросов.
    9.Быстрое оповещение.
    11.Выход на международные рынки.

    Наши конкурентные преимущества:

    1.При рассылке по контакт-формам все E-mail попадают в папку inbox, при рассылке по электронной почте до пяти процентов.

    2.При рассылке по контакт-формам за 24 часа можно разослать несколько миллионов E-mail в папку inbox, при рассылке по электронной почте несколько тысяч попадают в инбокс остальные чаще всего либо не доставляются, либо пополняют папку спам.

    3.При рассылке по формам обратной связи сообщение не блокируется почтовый сервисами так-как отправляется с разных вебсайтов, при рассылке по емейл можно разослать несколько тысяч, потом всё равно будет “BAN” всех ай-пи адресов с которых она производится.

    4.При рассылке по контакт-формам используется минимальное количество макросов-синонимов для составления текста и заголовков письма, при рассылке по электронной почте нужно «макросить» (синонимизировать) каждое словосочетание и создавать тысячи разных заголовков.

    5.Очень многие организации стараются прятать свой почтовый ящик и оставляют только контакт-форму для связи.

    6.При масштабной рассылке по емейл ваше деловое предложение может прийти каждому сотруднику фирмы (что вызывает раздражение), в отличие от рассылки по формам обратной связи, где письмо получают на емейл, специально выделенный для деловых предложений.

    7.Пятьдесят процентов корпоративных емейл рапсположены на бесплатных почтовых системах, по почтовым ящикам они плохо «пробиваемы», а при рассылке по формам обратной связи все сообщения через эти почтовые сервера доставляются адресатам на сто %.

    8.Только тридцать-сорок процентов фирм публикуются в справочниках в течение 2-3 лет, остальные уже находятся в наших базах ВОЙС и ждут ваших деловых предложений.
    Получается, что почтовые ящики организаций из справочников «заспамлены» а значит,не будут иметь такого профита, как рассылки по формам обратной связи по нашим свежайшим базам WHOIS.

    9.Через формы, можно рассылать любые “стоп-слова” в заголовках и в “теле писем”, при емейл рассылке такие сообщения либо не доходят, либо оказываются в spame.
    В список stop-слов почтовых систем входят практически все фразы и слова побуждающие потенциальных клиентов к действиям.


    1.Поиск новых клиентов.
    2.Быстрое информирование рынков о новых бизнес предложениях.
    3.Выход на лиц принимающих решения.
    4.Тестирование спроса на товары и услуги.
    5.Проведение тендеров.
    6.Проведение маркетинговых исследований.
    7.Изучение общественного мнения и проведение опросов.
    8.Поиск заказчиков на международных рынках.

    Причины чтобы заказывать:

    1.Стопроцентная доставка ваших E-mail и коммерческих предложений миллионам предприятий по всем странам мира.
    Каждый вебсайт, отправляет E-mail сам себе, поэтому обходятся все фильтры почтовых систем.

    2.Рассылка по формам обратной связи это хорошее средство для проведения всевозможных маркетинговых исследований, опросов и изучений общественного мнения по всякому виду деятельности и направлению.
    При рассылке по контакт-формам вы будете с полной уверенностью знать, что ваше сообщение было доставлено 100-процентам потребителям вашего услуги или товара и если товар или услуга «плохо продвигается», то возможные проблемы в чём-то другом, например в ценообразовании.
    При этом вы в течение 1 недели увидите спрос на ваши товары и услуги, вам не нужно будет тратить средства на аренду помещения и другие более дорогостоящие и долгие мероприятия маркетинга.

    3.Рассылка по формам обратной связи это очень экономичный и быстрый способ выйти со своей услугой или товаром на рынки других стран.

    4.Рассылка по контакт-формам это инструмент для проведения различных тендеров.

    5.Ежедневное обновление базы, так как ежедневно регистрируется более ста пятидесяти тысяч новых сайтов во всём мире, а вы получаете потенциальных новых клиентов.

    6.Полный географический охват по всем странам земного шара.

    7.Мы предлагаем клиентов, которых не найдёшь другими видами рекламы.
    При рассылке по контакт-формам вы сможете «добраться» до той части ваших потенциальных клиентов, которых невозможно найти в автоматическом режиме любым другим способом.
    Например, вы сможете доставить бизнес предложение тем потенциальным заказчикам, которые ранее были недоступны из-за почтовых фильтров при рассылках по почтовым ящикам.
    На рынках сложилась парадоксальная ситуация, организации, которые находятся в справочниках в прямом смысле слова «заспамлены» всякими деловыми предложениями, при этом оставшимся пишут мало.

    8.Авторская техника по расшифровке CAPTCH.
    Есть специальные сервисы по расшифровке цифрового и буквенного кода (CAPTCHA), разгадать тысячу CAPTCH стоит 1 доллар.
    Следовательно, обрабатывая миллион вебсайтов программа разгадывает 1 миллион капч, что стоит 1000 долларов только на на разгадке CAPTCH, а у нас это бесплатно для вас!

    9.Заказывая рассылку по формам обратной связи вы продвигаете свой услугу или товар не отдельным частным лицам, а целым трудовым коллективам, например зона доменов .com, где собраны более 150 миллионов коммерческих организаций со всех стран мира (у нас есть выборки из международных зон по каждому государству).

    10.Рассылка по контакт-формам является в том числе и подвидом SMS рассылки.
    Электронный ящик привязанный к форме обратной связи является главным электронным адресом предприятия, через который идут заявки и деловые предложения, эту электронную почту также настраивают на сотовые, так-как на сообщения нужно быстро реагировать, чтобы не терять заявку или актуальность бизнес предложения.

    11.В базу по странам входят в том числе и все совместные предприятия со всех стран, тесно связанные или работающие с данной страной, к примеру национальные общины и диаспоры.

    BAN, санкции поисковиков и почтовых систем?
    Эти рассылки являются альтернативой рассылок по E-mail, поэтому санкции поисковиков и “Бан” на них не распространяются.
    Почтовая система доставляет данные письма в папку inbox, так-как оно двигается по “прогретому каналу связи” с белого ай-пи адреса сайта на корпоративный почтовый ящик этого-же интернет ресурса.
    Говоря простыми словами, эти рассылки “живут в емейлах” и почтовые фильтра на них не действуют, потому, что у почтовых систем есть большое доверие к каналам связи между интернет ресурсами и корпоративными адресами электронной почты.

    Вы можете приобрести наши базы отдельно от рассылки отправив нам заявку через форму обратной связи.







    Текст сообщения самый простой + нескольког заголовков, главное заинтересовать, всё остальное потенциальный клиент прочитает на вашем интернет ресурсе.
    Скорей всего все объявления по вашей тематике уже есть в сети интернет, вводите нужные запросы в поиск и выбирайте наиболее подходящие.
    Заголовки подставляются сменяя друг друга из текстового файла.
    Сообщения отправляются только в текстовом виде, ссылки ставятся без проблем, они активные, если нужны картинки или более подробная информация отправляете потенциального клиента на свой вебсайт.

    В письме:
    Текст без картинок, так как через форму обратной связи картинки не проходят.
    Ваши контакты:
    Адрес сайта:

    Поля для заполнения:
    Несколько заголовков:
    электронный ящик для автоматических ответов:

    Пожалуйста не отвечайте на это предложение со своего почтового ящика, так как оно создано в автоматическом режиме и не дойдёт до нас!
    Используйте для связи контакт-форму

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