You may have heard of something called the Efficient Market Theory. If you did, it was almost certainly in a negative context, some writer or blogger excoriating those egghead finance professors for confusing the world with 
their crazy and dismal theories. This is a rant mostly heard from the advocates of investing in individual stocks, but is also found occasionally in the arguments of those in favor of active funds over passive (index) funds and market timing over passive asset allocation.
Apparently, this poisonous heresy has been spread by overly educated academics near and wide for decades. They convince their innocent students that it is categorically impossible to make money picking stocks, that anybody who does anything other than buy an index fund is a fool. It’s a viewpoint that is not just wrong, it’s dismally pessimistic and, let’s face it, simply un-American.
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This week’s Carnival of Personal Finance is up at Greener Pastures. It includes my post on Credit Cards and Our Nation of Children. There’s lots of other interesting stuff there. One link that caught my eye was Why Inspiration has no Place in Investing at Invest Wisdom. Click and enjoy!
Summer, culturally speaking, arrives tonight. This impending event seems to have cleansed my brain of post ideas. So no proper post today. I’ll be back all refreshed and bitterly appalled on Tuesday.
A few random things in the meantime.
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I’ve always wanted to invent my own derivative. I realize some of you may think that’s strange, but for a finance geek like me, it’s only natural. And I think I’ve come up with a good one.
It’s for people without appropriately large emergency funds to live off if they lose their job or otherwise fall into financial distress. I call it the Expensive Loan Option, or ELO. The way it works is that you pay me a fee of $X per year and I guarantee that you will be able to get a loan at any time during that year for $5X at 20% interest. So, for example, if you want to be sure of being able to borrow $10,000 at 20% interest at any time during the next year, just pay me $2000 and you can sleep soundly.
Excited? Well, of course you are. Perhaps you have a nice job and enough liquid assets to pay four months of expenses should something nasty happen. That’s okay, but the Fabulous Suze Orman has told you that you need eight months worth of liquid assets. No problem! Just buy an ELO from me. If it costs you $3500 a month to support that glam lifestyle of yours, then just sign up for a $14,000 ELO for the modest fee of only $2800. I take PayPal.
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Congress is about to pass “sweeping credit card legislation.” I don’t think it’s all that sweeping, and although overall I don’t particularly object to it, there are aspects of it that bother me.
Reassuringly for us curmudgeons, the bill is hardly revolutionary, largely a collection of modestly worthwhile reforms and regulations. There are rules about how interest rates can be raised and late fees charged. Most people will not notice any effects, and even those that do will probably forget about it in a year or two.
However, there is one aspect of the would-be law that is significant both in its impact on a small slice of the public and as a sign of the times. The just-passed Senate version of the bill outlaws credit cards issued to those under 21. The House version set the minimum age at 18. That’s a big difference in my book.
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their crazy and dismal theories. This is a rant mostly heard from the advocates of investing in individual stocks, but is also found occasionally in the arguments of those in favor of active funds over passive (index) funds and market timing over passive asset allocation.
Investing | Frank Curmudgeon | 
May 26, 2009 9:00 am | 
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